For the past few weeks I've been seeing a dramatic change in the population. *Raids of the pug variety have been less* but lower instance runs have taken up the slack.
I think we have a shift in the makeup of the game's population. Although, the hardcore guilds still run raids in their tightknit non pug coteries... I have for the most part discounted these people as "players" because they are not an active precense in the gameworld. The real activity seems to be a surge in lower level population and activity. Thus, my thesis is this...
Funcom is actively engaged in the "fresh blood" strategy. They have for the most part disengaged from the endgame users and super vets(just let them farm the emperor/memory cloud or try temple!) They realized the last BIG update will be crafting(which is really Craig's magnum opus and not the new GD's) and that further major updates will be replaced with much smaller bits and pieces updates. By the time the fresh blood reaches 80 and have gone through all the raids and end game content with several toons (like the vets currently). There will be plenty to do for them...this is years and years from now.
So this leaves us with these scenarios.
*Vets will quit... yes some may quit playing but because vets seem to do the most un -beneficial of things and do the 1 year sub... no vet will actually "quit" and by the time their subs expire maybe 6,7,8 months from now, some tidbit of an update will provide enough carrot to keep them going.
*New players will trickle in and be the new bedrock of the game. Yes, and this is perfectly natural.
*PvP revival. Even free players end up paying something at some point. I think PvP is an untapped money resource. If the devs are careful it can be turned into a f2p wonderland and with a FC store that caters to mostly PvP a BIG revenue generator.
***I think the mentality needs to take hold in the minds of developers that PvPers and PvErs are two entirely different animals and seperation between the two with very little overlap (namely in PvE gear and AA abilities) is the best way to fix it.
*The game IS IN maintenance mode. If you think otherwise you are just not thinking straight. The more sparse attention from devs and the feel that they are taking many long time vets for granted should be clues. BUT I argue "what else did you expect?" The company is on the verge of financial implosion I s**t you not..and the only way through seems to be a strategy into mobile games(very smart move IMHO). Don't despair however if they can strike gold in mobile like in their earlier games it will invariably trickle down to AoC. Let's just hope they got some geniuses in their Montreal studios.